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Oil jumps as Goldman Sachs boosts price forecast by third

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The US oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day for the first time in four decades

USA crude oil production is at its highest levels since 1970 and has nearly doubled over the past decade, according to data from the federal Energy Information Administration released Thursday. The supply side of the oil market is getting stronger. So the total lag from a change in prices to a change in production can be six to 12 months especially once delays in reporting are taken into account.

The agency, whose next forecast is scheduled for release February 13, estimated that oil stocks held by OECD nations as of November were about 90 million barrels above the five-year average that OPEC has said it is targeting with its cuts.

The production values presented here are based on EIA's monthly survey of crude oil production, which, for reasons explained in a webinar presented earlier this week, are considered more comprehensive and reliable values of US crude oil production than the preliminary estimates presented in EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Crude oil prices shot back toward the $70 mark early Thursday after reports of a drain in gasoline inventories as traders shrugged off big USA oil gains.

In 2017, world production was estimated at 97.3 million b/d, and this could reach more than one hundred million b/d by 2019 depending on the growth in USA production and whether OPEC members comply with a 2017 production agreement that curtailed supply. A month earlier, production was at 10.013 million barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration issued figures this week, slightly below records set back in November 1970, looking to overtake Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia as major producers. USA crude exports to Asia accounted for 35 per-cent of the total in the first eight months of 2017, a figure that grew to 40 percent in September and October.

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Just two days after President Trump proclaimed the end of thefederal government's war on energy produced in the US, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration announced domestic crude oil production has reached record levels.

Oil jumped after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted a price forecast by a third and said global crude markets have probably rebalanced.

Brent for April delivery traded up 52 cents at Dollars 69.41 a barrel at 11:45 a.m.in London after earlier rising to USD 69.67. WTI prices were about $60 a barrel in January 2018. The rocky mountain region of the U.S.is known for its shale oil production.

"There's no doubt shale players will respond to higher prices", says Jan Edelmann, commodity analyst at HSH Nordbank AG.

Production and price projections may become more clear over the next few weeks as energy companies report 2017 earnings and provide more insight on 2018 drilling budgets. If you look at the production as oil prices have soared, it's very evident that these producers want to cash in.

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