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Macron warned trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran

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Column by South Dorset MP Richard Drax: Hopes of peace are a long way away

Would Israel be satisfied to see Western nations enter new talks with Iran?

The senior official said Israel had coordinated its reveal of the nuclear documents with the White House, timing Netanyahu's press briefing to follow Trump's meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuelle Macron - who both sought to convince the United States leader not to leave the accord. How would Iran reply? Iran may immediately kick-start its nuclear programme.

"It's going to be very complicated", said Ama Adams, who advises clients on global sanctions compliance at the law firm Ropes & Gray. "There are many alternatives to journey up and make errors".

The US must decide if it will remain inside the 2015 pact or withdraw and reimpose a raft of sanctions on Iran, which had agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the relief. And what happens to Iran's pre-existing obligations to allow nuclear inspections?

Trump has essentially two options for re-imposing sanctions.

Mr Trump has set a deadline for May 12. "I don't think [US President] Donald Trump wants war", Macron said in an interview which appeared in Friday's issue of the magazine.

Iran publicly says it will not agree to negotiate any limits on its behavior, but pressure could come in the form of new European and US sanctions.

A second possibility: re-imposing exclusively the central financial institution sanctions. Those who do not would finally be penalized by Washington.

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Why not restore all the sanctions at once? Trump has lengthy stated the deal wanted to be strengthened or deserted, however efforts with European allies to strengthen it have not but succeeded. Mr Trump could present the International Atomic Energy Agency and others with "credible and accurate information" involving an "uncured material breach" by Iran and effectively sink the whole deal.

The source familiar with the debate said US negotiators are hamstrung by the fact that they do not really know where Trump's "red line" is and so they can not tell the Europeans what would secure Trump's blessing. And as soon as Trump announces sanctions will be coming back, companies will immediately start shutting down their business with Iran. "Iran lied on the front end".

What would Europe do? But it surely won't matter a lot. Under Trump in particular, the US has blocked Iran from seeing the "economic benefits" from sanctions relief that were promised in the agreement. "They're marching in the streets saying, 'Death to America'".

It is a main dilemma for European companies, made much more sophisticated if the European Union decides to invoke a measure put in place within the 1990s to counter the USA embargo on Cuba. The EU can use those regulations to prohibit European companies from complying with some USA sanctions. "So the deal that was made was made on things that weren't accurate, and we have a big problem with that".

How would the world even know?

However, scrapping the deal would surely exacerbate an already inflammatory situation. There is more than enough to focus on in the present-day Middle East than what the area might look like in 2030, even assuming Iran could surreptitiously keep its nuclear development going such to then pop out of the cake with a nuclear surprise. But it's unclear how rigorously Iran would comply. In spite of everything, alleged dishonest and delay ways by Iran had been a serious concern previous to the 2015 deal.

Trump could refuse to renew the waivers but give new U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo time to negotiate more with the Europeans, exploiting the deal's dispute resolution mechanism or the time before the most draconian sanctions take effect.

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